� Backchannel Notes - Fullerton | Main | SHALL WE PLAY A WARGAMES? �
6 January, 2009
Robot Nation
Erik mentioned a provocative-sounded essay in class, as Mark Meadows was speaking about the increasing automation of interactions and services. Robot Nation, by Marshall Brain does some forecasting, including projecting economic havok in 2015 as robots replace pilots, drivers, clerks, receptionists, and food service personell. It's already happening slowly; his vision is strident, but he does have some salient points and active rebuttals for common sense denial.
These techno-utopian scenarios wend their way to Michael Moorcockian visions of an effete race of creative types making art and drama as tasks are executed by slave lower classes (robots or barbarians). These systems are not sustainable in his fictions; hence we're left with cyborg modes of living as more authentic visions of roboticized futures.
Around 2000, there were roughly 700,000 robots in the world. 400,000 of them were "living" in Japan. This is an imprecise statistic (how are you defining robot?), but it's illustrative - Japan is roboticizing faster than any other culture in the world. With a severely low birthrate, building robots sure beats encouraging immigration! Or something like that. Either way, Japan will act out these social changes before we do. Of course I remember the small mechanical dolls and animals from the late 1800s in Japanese museums - they were wonders to behold, and probably caused some youngsters then to argue about the nature of life and work and nature and beauty in a world that's increasingly artificial. So Brain's essay are provocative, as all our history leads to increasing artifice.
Posted by justin at November 8, 2004 9:37 PM
Comments
yeah, it was quite inspirational and also entertaining class. Justin, when you mentioned 700,000 robots were living in the world around 2000, what kind of robots are they? What are the criteria of differentiating the robots from other artificial devices? Can you suggest any site links that I can see those robots? thanks always, I learn a lot from you.
Posted by: Doox at November 9, 2004 2:39 PM
I read through the first two sections. It was pretty interesting, but also seems to oversimplify things. We pretty much have to take Mr. Brain's word that just because we CAN do something, we WILL do that something. Will completely automated dining experiences take over all sectors of restaurants? Its easy to imagine it happening in the fast food market, but I can't imagine a fully automated restaurant fulfilling the expectations I arrive at a nicer place with.
Will it be so simple that robots will usurp all transportation-related jobs? Won't it require some kind of legislation to have a fully automated robot flying a commercial airplane full of people? Will our post-9/11 anxieties even allow us to consider something like this? If robots are going to take away all the jobs, whose incomes will support the industries that robots will be operating?
Posted by: Aaron at November 9, 2004 7:38 PM
I started reading the essay. I agree with Aaron's point that just because something CAN be done doesn't mean it will. There's many factors involved, not the least of which is simple economics:
1 kiosk per table at say $200, reducing headcount by 0.05 (say one server per 20 tables), with that person making X$ per day, etc, etc - how much does it pay itself off and by when?
On the other hand the "if robots take away all the jobs" arguement is ridiculous. We had that same arguement during the era of industrialization, during automated farming, during current-day outsourcing. People are ingenious. They will find something else to do.
K
P.S. I have a Roomba and it's AWESOME!!!
Posted by: kim at November 10, 2004 2:17 PM
Post a comment
Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)
(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)