November 30, 2005. 11:47

Cell Death 2010 Good-bye, mobile phones; hello, mobile web! Take a good look at your cellphone: Remember what it looks like and what it does (or doesn't do), because in a few years both it and the system that supports it will be dead and gone. "But wait," you say. "We only just got here! We're just now getting 3G, W-CDMA, EVDO, and high-resolution QVGA screens and cameras, multimedia messaging, and all this other cool stuff!" Sorry, that relic of the twisted-pair landline age became history the minute Google decided to unwire San Francisco. To understand why, you need look no further than the word itself: phone,  which as we all know comes from the Greek phonos,  for voice.  It indicates that the primary focus of the cellphone, the network, and the phone companies that provide that network is voice. Accordingly, they charge for voice calls. However, the real network isn't about voice; it's about the services, transactions, data, and facilities people are willing to pay for. Voice comes as a free extra—hell, even video calls come as a free extra. For service providers, this is a revolutionary concept—and one that will force an entirely new business model on them. For consumers, however, it's nothing more than the natural evolution of the way they've already been communicating. To them, the transition will appear seamless. They won't care where or how they get their network connection as long as it's fast, reliable, everywhere, and free. Ubiquitous unlicensed broadband will ensure that, and more. It will put an end to the "walled garden" approach favored by many telecoms and transform the entire "off deck" services industry. Once the user switches from a provider-controlled network to one based on ubiquitous broadband (UB) that's connected to the unregulated and free World Wild Web, the floodgates aren't just opened, they're blown away. Where It Starts All it takes to start that revolution is one device—a handheld network device, something very like the Palm TX, Sony PSP, or Nokia 770—with a Bluetooth headset. (After all, what use is a QVGA screen on a handset that's pressed up against your sweaty ear?) With VoIP, a web interface, and a broadband-wired world, the cellphone is a museum piece. Get ready for the ODMs in Asia to churn out hundreds of millions of low-cost devices. Pop in a WiFi CF card, and you're ready to roll. Did someone say dumb pipe? Do you know where your friends are, whether they're available for calls, or what they've been mobblogging before you call them? If you were sitting in a cafe two blocks away from someone you wanted to see, would you know it? Not with a cellphone, not yet—but you would if you used software like Skype or Gizmo on a wireless handheld coupled with a suite of socio-centric, location-aware applications ... and every other person was doing the same. Or how about when the guy walking past wants to sell his old blues collection and you desperately need a Blind Lemon Jefferson recording to complete your set? Or maybe that woman buying a decaf soy latte needs a full-time assistant right away, and you've just told your old boss to shove it. What emerges is the mobile web, one that lives and breathes in constant flux. Pretty soon it will be much more interesting to browse the mobile web from your PC than to browse Web 1.0 on your phone. So just how far off is this brave, new world? Expect a transition phase of no more than five years. According to Gartner Group, there will be 3 billion mobile subscribers by 2010, and more than 70% of voice connections around the world will be wireless. While the changeover is being implemented, the cellphone manufacturers will introduce a feature that automatically detects an available broadband network and routes your calls over it free of charge. Key to the user's transitional experience will be the next generation of user interfaces. Designed to run on cellphones, they'll work even better and offer more capabilities when the connection speed goes up and the platform they're running on is essentially a handheld computer. Software that hasn't been designed with this platform migration in mind is already history. Your handheld will soon know not only where you are but also the quickest way to where you want to go and what's happening on the road, track, or runway ahead. It will even stream your DVR content to you on demand. And you'll be able to share whatever you choose with whomever you wish. Didn't Yahoo just buy Flickr? Perhaps they should have tried to outbid News Corp. for MySpace too? Want to have access to your music and video collection without carrying it around—even when you don't have a handheld device? In the not-too-distant future, ubiquitous broadband coupled with devices automatically optimized to your chosen interface the moment you log in will provide just that. Hire a car in Dublin and make the console device aware of your identity, and with UB, you'll be able to watch and listen to anything you've already purchased. Naturally, that console device will also be a phone—a free one, of course. The car-hire people will probably even throw in a branded Bluetooth headset free of charge (in case you forgot to bring your own). Think about it: Doesn't your iPod nano look a bit like a phone already? That's because it's transitional technology: The memory chips inside don't need to get bigger; they just need to be Wi-Fi connected to UB. When they are, a mobile music player will become a phone, bypassing the cellphone/MP3 player completely. Don't ask why your ROKR can't download songs into iTunes over the ponderous cellular connection; ask why you can't make a (free) call yet with a nano. What's Driving It So how do the service providers make money when calls will in essence be free? Ask Google: It knows all about it. There are currently around 190 million cellphone users in the United States (out of 1.8 billion worldwide) who will spontaneously switch to what is basically a web interface for all of their communications—that's a lot of extra clicks. Did eBay really pay over book for Skype? And what will drive this revolution? Free telephone calls are a big deal—big enough, in fact, to make the platform dominant—but eventually it will be services (both paid for and free) that are the driving force. In the end, it's all about content, and the groans of service providers and content creators can already be heard as they wonder how they'll pay for or get paid for all of this content when the consumer expects so much for free. But free is rarely truly free: Facilities and services have to be paid for, and advertising has already been established as the accepted mechanism for this. Users can pay a premium and get ad-free content, or they can choose a free ad-supported option. Content has to be paid for, of course, and good content that draws more traffic will demand a higher fee—one that's based on performance. With a little planning on the part of users, technology can rise to the challenge. Borrowing from the Japanese iMode model and the micropayment system, content providers of the future will receive usage fees based on actual consumption while also sharing in advertising revenues. Advance fees will be paid to content creators and recouped against these earnings. Service providers will start acting like publishing houses—doing deals and courting the popular, talented, and famous—and micropayments will be managed through services like Peppercoin and PayPal. Hey, doesn't eBay own them too? Anyone seeing a pattern here? In the midst of all this will be the individual content providers, hungry and empowered by the new technology. They will be light on their feet, reacting to street-level demand and making fast money from trends and fads. Micropayments will fly from content producer to user and back again, all facilitated by the (micro-commissioning) network providers. The debits and credits will appear on the monthly network bill, and net earnings could be credited to the connected device. That device could then be used to pay for an airline ticket or lunch—or even (when swiped over an ATM, which the device has directed the user to) to obtain good, old-fashioned paper currency. When the content creator's network bill is paid in credit for services, prosumers will have truly risen and the peacock's long tail will have spread wide open. We think Mr. Toffler will be very happy. As with any revolution, though, there will also be losers. Vodafone went from nothing to being the largest capitalized company in the United Kingdom in less than 20 years—how long before it goes back to nothing if it fails to embrace this future and implement it before its competitors? The service providers that remain under the mistaken impression that they are voice companies will fall even faster than they rose. But many of these same companies are now building their own IP backbones, thereby reducing their costs and increasing their independence. All they have to do is add 802.11 to their masts. When It Will Happen Did we say this transformation would take five years? Sorry: Make that 12 months. What's at stake here is a micro-percentage of every transaction that takes place over UB—which could eventually mean every transaction that takes place anywhere. Compare those numbers with a revenue stream based largely on the constantly decreasing unit cost of voice calls, and there can be no hesitation as to which model works. What do you call businesses that control global financial transactions? Banks,  perhaps? Of course some of the older telecoms still consider themselves voice companies, but then who can forgive a technology company that refuses to adapt? Maybe that's why they made such a fuss about Philly. Once everyone has UB, we will all rely heavily on the network for a vast range of services—from our work and finances to our entertainment and personal security. So what happens in the event of a failure or, worse, an attack? When an event of that nature takes place, peer-to-peer networks will form, linking a person at one end of the country to another through 100,000 personal handhelds. Forget infrastructure failures during disasters, the network will form and repair itself. So what really matters? The devices? The network? Or perhaps something less tangible. Perhaps what really matter are the interfaces and services that support our lifestyles and social networks. Devices will come and go; the network will ebb and flow—and through it all, we'll remain connected to who and what matters most with much more than just our voices. Still want to keep that old cell? Eduardo Sciammarella also contributed to this story. Eduardo Sciammarella is president of Protohaus, a Santa Monica, Calif., interface design and protyping consultancy. Steve Baker is a Tokyo based creative business consultant, artist manager, and writer. Not yet an AlwaysOn insider? Sign up and receive AO's print magazine, get private invitations to insider events, and enjoy special online privileges all for 40% off if you act now! It's easy. Become an AlwaysOn Insider here, or sign up to the digital version of the magazine here.